AGP Executive Report

Oil & Security Deal: Uganda and DR Congo have announced joint oil exploration in the Albertine Graben after high-level talks in Entebbe, with both sides also linking the move to deeper cooperation on petroleum, infrastructure, trade and regional security. Rights Under Pressure: Human Rights Watch says DR Congo authorities are increasingly harassing and arbitrarily detaining journalists, activists and opposition figures, as M23 advances in the east and Tshisekedi pushes constitutional change. China’s “Two-Faced” Role: A new China Chronicles report argues Beijing is expanding from economic ties into security and law-enforcement coordination in Central Africa—while still claiming non-interference—raising the risk of more instability around M23-linked dynamics. Food & Energy Stress: Severe hunger warnings continue for Kinshasa and beyond, while in eastern DR Congo households in Goma are turning to biogas to cut charcoal costs and reduce deforestation and pollution. Agriculture Finance: DR Congo also secured a UK-backed US$25M facility via Rawbank to expand credit for cacao, coffee and other crops, aiming to reduce lending risk for farmers.

Crackdown Escalates in Kinshasa: Human Rights Watch says DR Congo authorities are increasingly harassing and arbitrarily detaining journalists, activists, and opposition figures, as protests against proposed constitutional changes have been met with police violence. Eastern Congo Pressure: The clampdown is unfolding while M23—backed by Rwanda—holds territory in the east, keeping security tensions high. Arms Control Blueprint: In Yaoundé, regional experts are drafting a harmonised small-arms and light-weapons blueprint for ECCAS states, aiming to align national plans and strengthen cross-border accountability. Burundi FRAD Questions: In Burundi, concerns are growing after a public seed center in Ruyigi was reportedly turned into a military training camp for the FRAD, raising alarms over power balance and food-security impacts. Hunger Warning: Separate reporting highlights severe hunger in Kinshasa, driven by conflict, climate shocks, and a weak economy. Energy Shift in the East: Meanwhile, eastern DRC households are turning to biogas to cut cooking costs and deforestation pressure after charcoal prices surged under M23 control.

Military-Politics in Burundi: In east Burundi, the Kigarika public seed center in Ruyigi is being turned into a FRAD training camp, with over 200 Imbonerakure youth reportedly in military training—sparking worries about power shifts, food-security impacts, and local tensions tied to Burundi’s sensitive defense legacy. DRC Food Pressure: Kinshasa says severe hunger is tightening across the country as conflict in the east, climate shocks, and a weak economy push prices up, while a capital food bank can only cover a small share of needs. DRC Agriculture Finance: The DRC secured a UK-backed US$25M facility via Rawbank to expand credit for cacao, coffee, rice, cassava, corn and palm oil—aimed at cutting lending risk and helping farmers invest in rehabilitation and processing. Energy at Home in the East: In Goma, households are shifting to biogas to escape charcoal price spikes after M23 took the city and restricted logging near Virunga. Human Rights in the East: Amnesty says the ADF is behind mass war crimes in eastern DRC, including killings, abductions, forced labor, sexual violence, and child exploitation. Regional Flashpoints: Sudan’s RSF carried out drone strikes across cities, while Ethiopia’s TPLF moved to reinstate a regional government, raising the odds of a wider showdown.

Over the past 12 hours, coverage in the DRC has focused on economic support for agriculture, worsening humanitarian conditions, and localized responses to environmental and energy pressures. A UK-backed financing mechanism worth US$25 million, implemented through Rawbank, is reported as aimed at expanding credit for producers of cacao, coffee, rice, cassava, corn, and palm oil, with the stated goal of reducing lending risk and improving access to finance for orchard rehabilitation and post-harvest processing. In parallel, reporting warns that severe hunger is gripping the country—at least in Kinshasa—driven by climate crisis, prolonged conflict in the east, and a weak economy, with a food bank able to meet only a fraction of needs. Another strand highlights household-level adaptation in eastern DRC: in Goma, residents are turning to biogas as a cheaper alternative to charcoal, with the reporting linking higher charcoal prices to conflict dynamics and displacement.

Human rights and conflict-related reporting also appears in the most recent window, suggesting continued pressure on civilians in eastern DRC. Amnesty International is cited as accusing the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) of mass war crimes and crimes against humanity, including murder, abductions, forced labor, sexual violence, and exploitation of children—framed as contributing to an escalating humanitarian crisis. While this is not the only conflict-related item in the 7-day set, the Amnesty evidence is presented as detailed and specific, making it one of the stronger “major event” signals in the recent coverage.

Looking slightly further back (24 to 72 hours), the themes broaden from immediate humanitarian needs to longer-running structural issues and development experiments. Additional reporting returns to the biogas theme in eastern DRC, reinforcing that the energy/deforestation/pollution angle is not just a one-off story. Other items include a warning of a severe hunger crisis in the DRC’s megacity context, and commentary on rebel attacks and “extensive brutality” against civilians. There is also continuity in the broader “resource and governance” narrative: an item notes critical minerals cooperation (India and EU) and another describes FasterCapital supporting youth-led climate action—though these are not DRC-specific in the evidence provided.

From 3 to 7 days ago, the coverage provides background on governance and state capacity in the minerals sector and on international positioning. President Félix Tshisekedi is reported to have ordered a 30-day audit of copper and cobalt export revenues, targeting systemic leaks and aiming to create a “traceable chain” connecting port agencies, the central bank, and commercial institutions. Other context includes analysis of the DRC’s external diplomatic and strategic environment (including U.S. sanctions and U.S. diplomacy shaping the war in the east) and infrastructure/connection efforts such as Air Congo launching a Kinshasa–Brussels long-haul route. Overall, the most recent 12-hour evidence is strongest on credit for agricultural exports, hunger, and civilian impacts/conflict-linked humanitarian strain, while the older items mainly supply continuity on minerals governance and international engagement.

Over the past 12 hours, coverage focused on how policy and practical interventions could shape Congo’s development and humanitarian conditions. GSMA Africa’s Policy Group urged African governments to treat telecommunications as a “core economic pillar,” calling for specific tax reforms to accelerate digital inclusion—an agenda framed around a Kinshasa event convening public and private stakeholders on the DRC’s digital future. In parallel, reporting highlighted the scale of hunger in Kinshasa, with a food bank saying severe hunger is driven by climate pressures, prolonged conflict in the east, and a weak economy, and that it can meet only a fraction of the capital’s needs.

Energy access and environmental impacts also featured prominently in the most recent reporting from the east. A biogas initiative in Goma was presented as a response to high electricity costs and reliance on charcoal, with households describing biogas as cheaper and less harmful than burning charcoal—especially after conflict-related disruptions contributed to higher charcoal prices. The reporting also links the shift to broader concerns about toxic fumes and power cuts, and it notes how local dynamics around armed control and logging restrictions have affected household energy costs.

In the 12 to 72 hour window, the same themes—hunger and energy—were reinforced, with additional coverage of biogas as a way to cut household bills while reducing deforestation and pollution in eastern DRC. This continuity suggests the biogas story is not just a single case study but part of a wider push to address energy insecurity and environmental degradation in conflict-affected areas.

Looking further back for context, the news cycle also included governance and conflict-related developments that help explain why humanitarian and economic pressures persist. Amnesty International accused the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) in eastern DRC of mass war crimes and crimes against humanity, describing killings, abductions, forced labor, sexual violence, and exploitation of children—an account tied to an escalating humanitarian crisis. Separately, President Félix Tshisekedi ordered a 30-day audit of copper and cobalt export revenues and state-owned assets, aiming to close “leaks” and create a “single traceable chain” for mineral exports and related financial flows. Other background coverage pointed to ongoing debates about external influence and strategic competition around Congo’s critical minerals, including U.S. sanctions and broader “scramble” narratives, but the most recent evidence in this set is strongest on hunger, energy transitions, and telecom policy rather than on a single new security or minerals-policy turning point.

In the last 12 hours, coverage focused heavily on the humanitarian and household-energy pressures facing people in the DRC. The Independent reports that severe hunger is gripping Kinshasa and that a food bank can meet only a fraction of the capital’s needs, citing drivers including the climate crisis, prolonged conflict in the east, and a weak economy. In parallel, reporting from Goma highlights how rising charcoal prices and energy insecurity are pushing residents toward biogas as a cheaper, locally produced alternative—framed as reducing toxic fumes and power-cut problems while also cutting household costs. Together, these pieces connect food insecurity and conflict-linked economic strain with the search for practical, local solutions.

Also within the last 12 hours, the biogas reporting is presented as a direct response to conflict-related market changes in eastern DRC. The article links the charcoal price spike to fighting and displacement after Goma fell to the M23 in January 2025, and to subsequent restrictions on logging in Virunga National Park. The biogas examples emphasize affordability and household usability (including a comparison of biogas cylinder costs versus charcoal spending), suggesting a continuity of coping strategies in the east rather than a single new intervention.

Beyond the immediate 12-hour window, older articles provide background on the broader context shaping these pressures—especially conflict, governance, and resource management. Amnesty International’s report accuses the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) in eastern DRC of mass war crimes and crimes against humanity, describing abuses such as murder, abductions, forced labour, sexual violence, and exploitation of children—reinforcing why civilians face escalating humanitarian crises and reduced access to healthcare, food, and education. Separately, a 30-day audit order for copper and cobalt export revenues (with a focus on closing loopholes and improving traceability) points to ongoing efforts by Kinshasa to address governance and revenue leakage in the minerals sector.

Finally, several items in the wider week point to longer-term structural shifts that could affect the DRC’s development trajectory, though the evidence is more policy/announcement-based than outcome-based. These include plans for DRC’s return to long-haul aviation via a Kinshasa–Brussels route, and EU commentary on critical-minerals governance and the desire for reduced foreign presence as a sign of domestic capacity. There is also continuity in the “critical minerals” theme across the week, with coverage of U.S. sanctions against Joseph Kabila and broader discussions of mineral cooperation—context that helps explain why hunger, conflict, and energy transitions are being discussed alongside minerals governance and international partnerships.